Australia heads to the polls on 21 May. Two older blokes are vying for the top job: one nobody likes or trusts, and another nobody knows who stands for nothing. What unites them is their talent for dodging genuinely thorny issues like climate change or the increasingly strained political and financial relationship with China.
The physically imposing incumbent is Scott Morrison from the Liberal Party (think CDU-lite), affectionately known as “Scotty from Marketing”. His challenger is Anthony Albanese from the Labor Party (roughly an SPD from the 1990s).
Nobody knows what Albanese wants (and seemingly neither does he)
“Albo” has been around politics forever, yet remains a blank slate — what Australians call a “clean skin”. This is surprising in a country where everyone knows everyone. We’re all “mates”, right? How can someone be so invisible? Maybe Albanese is like a Peer Steinbrück without the plain speaking and sharp edges.
Albo essentially fell into the top spot three years ago after Bill Shorten, Labor’s uncharismatic left-winger, surprisingly lost the last election in the final stretch to Rocky Braveheart Morrison.
Back then, Shorten apparently overplayed his hand on climate change. He had the audacity to say what everyone thinks but prefers to ignore: Australia must finally confront climate change, react much more strongly than before, prepare for the consequences, do something.
The hot potato of climate change
You need to understand that climate change in Australia only happens outdoors: raging bushfires, massive floods, cyclones, droughts, the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef. Inside Parliament House, it’s barely a topic. Nobody wants to get politically burned like Bill Shorten managed to. Because he didn’t just speak truths — he drew the wrath of the powerful mining lobby. And without them, nothing moves, apparently.
Question mining in Australia and you immediately attack Australian prosperity. Over recent decades, Australia has relied solely on returns from coal, iron ore and a heap of other raw materials while winding down everything else. Hard to believe Australia once manufactured cars. Much easier to drill holes in the red earth and tip everything into trains and containers bound for China with massive diggers. In short: Shorten got cut down to size, lost, and Albo was thrown into the race.
As opposition leader, Anthony Albanese couldn’t shine in the media because Australia, like everywhere else, was in crisis mode. While Morrison trampled like a drunk rhino into every puddle (sipping cocktails with paper umbrellas in Hawaii while half of Australia burned; showing little initiative during the COVID crisis, leaving state premiers to face the music), Albanese chose not to criticise the government too harshly on important COVID decisions, to avoid adding more uncertainty. That’s honourable, but in politics and in a media monoculture dominated by Murdoch, it’s now biting him on the arse.
I’d rather have a beer with Albanese
I like Albanese. He grew up in modest circumstances and seems far more authentic than Morrison, who embodies the classic stereotype of a slimy power politician. Every day you see Morrison in the media wearing a yellow or orange hard hat, having something explained to him. He throws cricket balls, kicks rugby balls, constantly shakes hands with people who sometimes don’t want their hands shaken.
You have to give him this: ScoMo perfectly understands the power of images. Then it doesn’t matter what he says. He loves talking about his successes. When something goes wrong, it’s “not my problem”. His strength is the smoothness with which he wriggles out of any situation. And if needed, the devout Pentecostal Christian happily appeals to the ultimate authority: Only Jesus has the power to shift the climate. No need to try harder then.
There’s a Scott Morrison in every group
Every group has someone like Scott Morrison: pumped full of self-confidence and a sense of mission. It’s always someone else’s fault, and when their ego gets particularly pricked, they’ll drag you with both arms into the proverbial pig wrestling arena.
Two weeks before the election, we’re in that arena. Unfortunately, Australia’s media landscape is also a kind of pig arena where only the loud and shrill topics get heard. No discussions about Australia’s future, no vision, no plans. Instead, journalists try to expose Albanese in particular with “gotcha” questions.
Gotcha! Can’t know facts, can’t run the country?
Journalists are currently focusing only on Trivial Pursuit questions in a political pub quiz they call “Got’cha” (I got you — I’ve exposed you). Gotcha, right on the first campaign day: Mr Albanese, what’s the RBA’s cash rate? Albanese didn’t know exactly (then 0.1%, now 0.35% as of a few days ago). Huge fuss and grist for Morrison’s mill, whose election platform roughly reads: “Vote for me because Albanese knows nothing about economics.”
Albanese’s platform isn’t much better: “You can’t trust Morrison. But you can trust me (even though nobody still knows what I stand for).” Isn’t that more of a campaign slogan? One would hope. But the detailed election programs I know from German parties wouldn’t interest anyone here anyway — better to get bogged down in minutiae. That’s why journalists prefer gotcha questions for seventh-graders: What’s the unemployment rate? How many sails does the Sydney Opera House have? What’s the name of Chile’s president? Yes, THAT’S what you need to know as Australian Prime Minister.
Sure, there are differences. Morrison wants to keep going as before. Albanese wants to put more money into hospitals and childcare. Both promise lots of help and money. When one promises something, the other follows with a few more million. Does this impress Australians, who are obliged to vote? I fear so, because my observation is that Australian society is still wallowing in the fat years and has made itself quite comfortable. Whoever offers more gets the contract.
Will Albanese get enough air in the headlock?
There’s much more to report on various aspects (and I’m noticing it’s quite fun unpacking this), but how will the election turn out? Surprisingly, the unknown Albanese is currently leading in polls because Morrison is simply too unpopular. But I believe Albanese still won’t make it because Morrison will drag him deeper into his pit and put him in a proper headlock. Or Albanese will continue handling the many annoying gotcha questions rather clumsily.
Even if Morrison remains Prime Minister, his half-life is rather short. I believe he’ll be quickly toppled within the party and replaced by Josh Frydenberg, the much more popular Treasurer within the party. He’s already warming up, increasingly distancing himself from Morrison. Frydenberg allegedly doesn’t want Morrison accompanying him in his electorate because it might reduce Frydenberg’s chances. That says plenty.
Whoever leads the race loses (and it’s always someone else’s fault)
And if Albanese actually makes it? He won’t be PM long. Because inflation is also shooting up in Australia and the RBA will continue raising the cash rate. Albo won’t have money for all those promises, and Morrison (or Frydenberg), but certainly the Murdoch mouthpieces, will systematically work to show that Albanese can’t handle finances and is ruining the country.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter who comes to or stays in power. With either, Australia will simply continue being administered. No wonder Australians are so politically disillusioned and prefer to indulge in unbridled consumption.
There’s no Australian Obama-Help in sight anywhere. But wake me if someone like Penny Wong makes it. She was born in Malaysia, grew up in Australia, experienced, exceptionally clear, clever, queer, opinionated and resolute. Should she suddenly rise more prominently to the front row, then something is moving in Australian politics and society, where it’s still fashionable for exclusively male politicians to present themselves as “mates” getting down-to-earth with a beer in the pub. Cheers then, Albo and ScoMo. Last call for you guys.
Update (21.5.): Australia has voted.
No more ScoMo! Labor won with Albanese, currently 71 seats to the Liberals’ 50. But 76 seats are needed for an absolute majority. So Albanese will lead a minority government. Everything’s still fresh.
I’m curious whether there’ll be cooperation with the Greens, who achieved about 12 per cent nationally. After all, Albanese has already spoken about planning a course change on climate policy. Will he reach agreement with the rather dogmatically-thinking Greens? This could actually really change the country — or quickly lead to splits within the party. Possibly that’s when Penny Wong’s time comes. She was, after all, Minister for Climate Change and Water from 2007 to 2010 and signed the Kyoto Protocol in 2007. I assume Penny Wong will become Foreign Minister. It’ll be interesting how she handles current issues like China, Ukraine, Solomon Islands, etc.
Originally auf Deutsch at reinergaertner.de, running since 1997. The translation had AI help. The typos are all mine.